Weekly Potato Report

From the Michigan Potato Industry Commission

July 14, 2010

Upcoming Events

Michigan State University - Montcalm Research Farm Field Day - Thursday August 12, 2010

Potato Market Update by Bruce Huffaker

Production losses are keeping summer chip potato supplies in close balance with production requirements. USDA reports a wide range of prices for open North Carolina chip potatoes, between $9.00-$10.75 per cwt. The North Carolina harvest is winding down. Dealers indicate that contract prices for Virginia chip potatoes are mostly $10.00 per cwt. They worry that Virginia growers will not be able to fill contract obligations, due to persistent dry weather. One dealer believes that his growers could be as much as 20% short on their contracts.

USDA forecasts a 13.06 million cwt summer potato crop. That is 0.6% below comparable production for the 2009 crop. However, the data may be misleading. Virginia's production is forecast to decline by 14.5%, due to acreage reductions. Its forecast yield is unchanged from the 2009 yield. Our sources believe that Virginia's growing area is unchanged from last year, but that dry weather will reduce yields significantly. East Coast production is forecast to be down 11.5% from last year. That is offset by a forecast 16.7% increase for Missouri's summer crop, as well as by smaller production increases in Illinois and Colorado.

USDA estimates that growers planted 896,100 acres to fall potatoes. That is down 41,000 acres from the 2009 crop, a 4.4% reduction. The biggest cuts occurred in the Pacific Northwest. Michigan's planted area declined to 44,000 acres, from 45,000 acres in 2009. We suspect that Russet table potato acreage declined more than enough to offset this year's increases in chip potato area. Observers are comfortable with most of USDA's fall potato acreage data. However, the data for North Dakota do not seem to match reality. Observers had expected acreage to hold steady, at most, and possibly to be down by 3,000 acres. Instead, USDA says that North Dakota growers planted 7,000 more acres to potatoes than they did in 2009. Moreover, its type data suggest that North Dakota growers planted 13,700 more acres to Russet potatoes than it did a year earlier, while cutting back on every other type of potato. The state's Red potato area is supposed to be down by 32%. However, Red River Valley fresh growers have conducted their own survey, which shows that the Valley's fresh potato area is slightly higher than it was in 2009. That survey covers North Dakota and parts of Minnesota, but it challenges the veracity of the USDA estimate of North Dakota's potato area.

Kern County shippers are selling size A new-crop Russet 5/10# bales for mostly $5.45 per master, unchanged from last week. Kern County 50-60 Count potatoes are selling for mostly $15.45 per 50# cartons, with 70 count cartons bringing mostly $14.45, also unchanged. The weighted average price for Idaho Russet Burbanks climbed to $13.10 per cwt, from $11.80 per cwt a week ago.

Virginia growers are selling size A Round White potatoes for 8.00 per 50# bag, unchanged from last week. Virginia Chefs are selling for $12.00 per 50# bag, unchanged for the week. In North Carolina, dealers are selling 2000# totes of Superiors for $14.00-$16.00 per cwt, down from $16.00 a week ago.

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