Weekly Potato Report

From the Michigan Potato Industry Commission

May 12, 2010

Potato Market Update by Bruce Huffaker

Chip potato supplies conditions appear to be easing this weekend. Most chip companies are back on contract, though there are very few chip potatoes remaining in storage. We picked up one report of a Florida sale at $14.00 per cwt, for delivery next week. However, our sources indicate that offerings of open potatoes are increasing rapidly, as the week progresses. Current yields are above average. On the other hand, Canadian buyers have entered the Florida market this week. In addition, chip plants that normally run on storage potatoes through much of May are turning to the Florida market, because storage supplies have been depleted. Demand appears to be good. Opinions vary as to whether supplies will be in balance with demand, or whether there will be a surplus during the next month, as the industry moves through the Florida and south Texas crops.

North Carolina potatoes will not be early. Growers indicate that cool, dry weather has slowed crop development. If the crop can get normal rainfall for the next month, harvest will start on time. Otherwise, growers may want to hold back for a week, to allow more bulking.

USDA forecasts spring potato production at 26.06 million cwt. That exceeds 2009 production, on a comparable basis, by 4.8%. Most of the increase will be in California, though USDA is forecasting a 1.2% increase in Texas, and a 1.9% increase in the Hastings district of Florida. The Hastings forecast may be conservative, if current yield reports are accurate, and if June rains hold off long enough to finish the delayed harvest. On the other hand the 6.7% decline forecast for other Florida growing areas may not comprehend the losses experienced in central and southern parts of the state. The northwest Florida crop would need to be exceptionally large to make up for those losses. In addition, North Carolina growers indicate that USDA's yield estimate for that state may be too high.

Canada's May 1 potato stocks are down about 7% from year-earlier holdings. Data for Saskatchewan have not been released, so it is difficult to be more precise. Ontario chip potato supplies were down 16.2% from last year, at 623,000 cwt. The quality of the remaining chip potatoes is questionable. This is the driving force behind early buying activity, on the part of Canadian chip potato interests, in the Florida market.

In the fresh market, Michigan packers shipped 23,600 cwt of potatoes during the week ending May 8. That is down from 33,500 cwt a year ago. Last week's shipments were 90.3% Russet potatoes, and 9.7% Round White varieties.

Michigan size A Russets are selling for mostly $1.20-$1.30 per 10# bag, up from $1.10-$1.30 a week ago. In Wisconsin, packers are selling non Size A Russets in 10# bags for mostly $4.50 per 50# bale, unchanged for the week. Wisconsin 50-70 count cartons are selling for mostly $8.50-$9.00 per 50# box, up from $8.00 a week ago. The weighted average price for Idaho Russet Burbanks advanced to $10.23 per cwt, from $10.09 at the same time last week.

Florida new-crop Size A Round White potatoes were selling for $14.00-$15.00 per 50# sack, unchanged for the week.

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